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Concern for the summer
http://www.rypn.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=44335		 Page 3 of 4
Author:  Dave [ Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
Viral mutations across species lines has been going on for as long as different types of life have been on earth. The idea that it is somehow preventable by any of our actions is not rational. What we can do is a better job of preparing to deal with it when it does happen, and how we behave when we find ourselves involved in it. Trust the science and make sensible choices.
Author:  robertjohndavis [ Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
Dave wrote:
Trust the science and make sensible choices.


That's pretty good advice right there.
Author:  PaulWWoodring [ Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
Dave wrote:
Viral mutations across species lines has been going on for as long as different types of life have been on earth. The idea that it is somehow preventable by any of our actions is not rational. What we can do is a better job of preparing to deal with it when it does happen, and how we behave when we find ourselves involved in it. Trust the science and make sensible choices.


True, but humans don't have to tempt fate by eating exotic animals (specifically bats), which is very likely where this started - in a "wet" market in Wuhan. Leave the bats to DC Comics.
Author:  Richard Glueck [ Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
As far as eating bats goes, three strikes and you're out.
Author:  Les Beckman [ Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
Richard Glueck wrote:
As far as eating bats goes, three strikes and you're out.


Richard - It's April 2nd, so I guess you're okay with that!


Les
Author:  KevinM [ Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
PaulWWoodring wrote:
Dave wrote:
Viral mutations across species lines has been going on for as long as different types of life have been on earth. The idea that it is somehow preventable by any of our actions is not rational. What we can do is a better job of preparing to deal with it when it does happen, and how we behave when we find ourselves involved in it. Trust the science and make sensible choices.


True, but humans don't have to tempt fate by eating exotic animals (specifically bats), which is very likely where this started - in a "wet" market in Wuhan. Leave the bats to DC Comics.


My understanding is that bats are the primary hosts for corona viruses, but that an intermediate species is the most likely way this virus made the leap from bats to humans. That is where the China "wet" markets are a problem. They handle a lot of wild species, some alive and some dead, without any significant precautions. The scientists who study this type of thing have been warning that something like this was coming, but those warnings have been given the same level of urgency as the ice warnings that were sent to the Captain of the Titanic.

While I agree that bad things will sometimes happen no matter what precautions we take, that does not mean we should be careless or that we should accept that disasters are inevitable. When we recognize a situation that represents a very high risk, mitigation action should be attempted. Hopefully, our current predicament will drive this point home in spades with the governments of the world. Just because a given type of disaster has not happened recently, it does not mean we are beyond it happening again if we are not vigilant.

I have always gotten a chuckle out of this quote:

“I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. I cannot conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that.”

Captain Edward J. Smith - 1907

Of course, 5 years later, he would preside over one of the worst wrecks in maritime history.
Author:  co614 [ Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
Just saw Dr. Fauci interviewed on BBC. He said that we Americans are not, repeat not taking this seriously enough and our curve is getting materially worse not better. He urged all remaining states that have not yet ordered stay at home orders to do so asap.

He further stated that we have " a good number of months to go" before we can even begin to discuss relaxing social distancing and staying home for all non essential workers.

Seems to me that this season is gone??

Ross Rowland
Author:  PaulWWoodring [ Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
I was hoping, based on how the 1918 flu pandemic went, that it might be possible to salvage June to September, but maybe not.
Author:  EJ Berry [ Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
Hmmm

We DON'T want the same timeline as the 1918-1919 flu.

According to CDC, it first appeared in March, 1918 at Camp Funston, Kan. A third wave occurred in Winter and Spring, 1919. The third wave subsided in Summer, 1919.

My grandfather died of the flu in 1918.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... e-1918.htm

Phil Mulligan
Author:  PaulWWoodring [ Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
I certainly am not saying I want the same timeline as the 1918/19 pandemic. What I was referring to was that by most accounts the virus tended to diminish during warmer months, perhaps to the point that some semblance of normal activity could resume. We now know that the onset of cooler weather can cause a rebound, and we prepare for that to happen, but I'm kind of hoping that at least for 2 or 3 months we can at least partially come out of hiding. Maybe not to have mass events, like concerts or major sporting events, but perhaps a picnic or a wedding.
Author:  co614 [ Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
Sadly Paul I don't think there's any real chance for this summer. Bottom line is until we can rapid test millions and millions we will continue to not know who is a carrier.

According to the best current estimates it will be at least 5 months ( that's 'till August) until we have distributed sufficient test materials/machines to test millions.

Without being able to test big numbers the social distancing drill will be maintained.

Sad but true. Ross Rowland
Author:  Crescent-Zephyr [ Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
I'm wondering what various operations here in the USA are doing?

This doesn't look like it's going to let up anytime soon so what are your plans? With so many people getting laid off, you can't just expect donations will get you through, and I think it's pretty thoughtless to ask for them right now.

It's got to be difficult to try to come up with a plan when there is no way to plan WHEN you can actually open up for business.
Author:  co614 [ Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
You're right. That's why I've advised my outfits to plan to be shut down until August 1,2021.

If it turns out better than that great, but I doubt it.

Plan for the worst....pray for the best.

Ross Rowland
Author:  robertmacdowell [ Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
PaulWWoodring and RobertJohnDavis wrote:
- some July-Aug-Sept events might be appropriate (though highly modified from their normal form)
- it might be possible to salvage June to September...

For many of us, the takeaway is don't count on our big October color/pumpkin patch/spook train.

Or our Polar Express/Christmas train.

In fact, we better tell them that loud and clear in our marketing. For instance at SMR, it's my experience that people are so partial to our Fall trains that they will not buy summer tickets until the fall has sold out; at that point summer sells like hotcakes. (so we tend to have a very tail-end-loaded summer season). To target that type of clientele, you will need to blast them hard, loud, and repeatedly with the fact that we expect there will not be any Fall/Christmas trains.

Crescent-Zephyr wrote:
Agreed Ross. Even if things start to open up mid-summer (which is best case scenario?) - People are going to be low on money, potentially scared to travel, and trying to get things ready for the next school year.

For those of us who are a cheap date, that actually works in our favor. We're not only recession-proof, we win in recessions. We're the thing you do when you can't afford Florida/Vegas/Mackinaw/the Poconos/Hamptons.

However my own 2 cents is that this will be very good for the economy. Up until March, everybody was feeling the unease of an economic run-up that felt like it's "run too long" and is getting "bubbley". Like we're "fearing the inevitable collapse" due to a market failure. Like an earthquake fault that hasn't moved in too long BOOM! We got our market adjustment, without it being a failure of the market. So nobody has lost confidence in the market. The pressure is relieved and everyone is chomping at the bit to get back to work. I think we'll have another 10 years of market expansion.

We just gotta live that long...
Author:  PCook [ Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Concern for the summer
If the virus flares up repeatedly in cycles, I would suspect that the "monthly meeting" and "annual meeting" structure used by many railroad enthusiast and railroad history organizations and some museums is going to be changed significantly. A lot of the members in their 60s or later, usually the largest age group in these organizations, are not going to want to risk sitting in crowded meeting rooms nowadays to watch "railroad oriented entertainment". Very few people are going to want the risk of being guest speakers or program presenters in those situations. The railroad history groups that remain economically viable are likely to regroup around their quality printed publications while future conferences, clinics, and meetings may be done electronically. This is probably a good time to be learning to use PowerPoint and electronic conferencing applications. The groups that do not, might not be around for much longer.

PC
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