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Amtrak Derailment in Washington State
http://www.rypn.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=41469
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Author:  Alexander D. Mitchell IV [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

Yet another angle has been raised:

https://pjmedia.com/trending/anarchists ... -fracking/

Quote:
The anarchist group "It's Going Down" last April bragged online about sabotaging railroad tracks in the Pacific Northwest to block fracking equipment from getting to its destination. The group has since deleted the post, possibly in reaction to today's Amtrak disaster.

Author:  Ed Kapuscinski [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

Alexander D. Mitchell IV wrote:
Yet another angle has been raised:

https://pjmedia.com/trending/anarchists ... -fracking/

Quote:
The anarchist group "It's Going Down" last April bragged online about sabotaging railroad tracks in the Pacific Northwest to block fracking equipment from getting to its destination. The group has since deleted the post, possibly in reaction to today's Amtrak disaster.


I wouldn't trust a source like PJ media for factual information about, well, anything.

Author:  Alexander D. Mitchell IV [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

Ed Kapuscinski wrote:
I wouldn't trust a source like PJ media for factual information about, well, anything.


Dislike their political slant (libertarian) all you want, but their "facts," sources, and cites check out every time.

Falling over themselves to speculate to advance an (admittedly anti-leftist-extremist) agenda is, of course, speculation to the point of almost recklessness. However, I made similarly hare-brained speculation about a far-fetched potential cause of the 2001 Howard Street Tunnel derailment and fire in Baltimore in July 2001, and was met with incredulity by the reporters talking to me for background--in fact, one simply turned and walked away from me in response--only to have the NTSB spokesman announce the next morning that they were pursuing exactly that theory. (It was all I could do not to laugh as those same reporters turned to gawk at me, slack-jawed, as the NTSB rep announced it.) Ultimately, they never could prove any "probable cause."

Having been to the U.K. and been exposed to defensive measures against Irish Republican Army terrorism, I also at the time quietly factored in the remote, but still real, possibility of terrorism--either of an international flavor or domestic "eco-terrorism." A mere two months later, a couple commandeered airliners seemingly forever prevented us from ever dismissing such speculation again.

Author:  dinwitty [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

Image

I presume these are the cars...who thunk this?

Author:  J3a-614 [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

dinwitty wrote:
Image

I presume these are the cars...who thunk this?


Certainly very similar to the Talgo Pendular (Talgo IV and Talgo V, also VI & Talgo 200 or 6th generation) series Amtrak uses, and were involved in this wreck.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talgo#Talgo_Pendular

What might be the most distinctive cars in these trainsets are the bistro cars, featuring a map of the route on the ceiling, highlighted by light bulbs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amtrak_Ca ... sDiner.JPG

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JydQJ2irFnY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtXrmz_lsvY

Author:  dinwitty [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 2:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

These cars on such a derailment would have followed each other around because of the articulation. The engineer seemed confused what happenned, hitting some object designed to derail sounds very plausible, high speed does not show very well here, I agree, with high speed this would be a bigger mess. This will take some time with the investigation.

Author:  70000 [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 4:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

NTSB appear to be saying that initial indications - based on data downloaded from the P42 on the rear of the train - is that it was doing 80 mph in a 30 mph zone.

Author:  Alexander D. Mitchell IV [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

70000 wrote:
NTSB appear to be saying that initial indications - based on data downloaded from the P42 on the rear of the train - is that it was doing 80 mph in a 30 mph zone.

Which, normally, would point to operator error.......

.... except the loco on the point was "brand new".......

Again, a proper investigation looks at EVERYTHING possible, even the far-fetched.

Author:  Pegasuspinto [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

What does the lead unit being new have to do with anything?

How about the simplest explanations are the most likely...

#1 There is a (unsubstantiated thus far, but not so far fetched) rumor that there were other officials in the cab for the inaugural run. In that case, it's likely the engineer was distracted.

#2 He was asleep.

My prediction is that the NTSB/DOT is about to come crashing down on DOT operators on the sleep apnea issue. Cpaps for everyone!! Yay!

Author:  Mtn3781 [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

Two more news reports. As this one points out, there will be video from the engines and black boxes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWPLOhqVJwY

An overhead picture of the accident that he diagrams with the known facts and then info about the rail line and it's recent upgrades.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIj2uPAs4Fs

Author:  Alexander D. Mitchell IV [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

Pegasuspinto wrote:
What does the lead unit being new have to do with anything?

In days of old, probably nothing.

But this is a new model without a (pardon the inadvertent pun) "track record" in service so far--only a scant few units in service, the longest for less than four months.

And in an era when both automobiles and locomotives can get recalled into shops to reprogram the software controlling them, it's not impossible that some technical or electronic glitch could have affected the loco or train's ability to slow down for the curve.

Unlikely? Most certainly. Impossible? I'll let the NTSB exclude that possibility once they have enough evidence to do so. But any competent investigator of any sort knows not to exclude a possibility until there is evidence to the contrary. Right now, the only thing we can exclude is PTC failing to do its job--because PTC was reportedly not yet in use on this line.

Author:  dinwitty [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

A front view video will be perfect. I am asking myself if this curve really is sharp enough to fling a train off at that speed. A passenger described the car tilting left, but thats an effect of the cars compressing as the lead engine was slowed by being off the track and the rear train pushing everything onward. ABC had an overhead view of the accident but that was all virtual and not real, using a Google earth shot and animating a train in.
If this train was too fast for the curve the engine should have leaned right as the rest of the train might we would see spillage only on the right side of the track. A derailing object on the track would jump the engine straight at that curve. I would see the lead engine on its side but that is not the case. Speed is a factor here but if it was at 30 mph and a derailing object on the track may not change the circumstances here except less damage. The lack of track damage is weird, but the rear engine stayed on the rails, the cars are much lighter than regular cars so they got bounced around. The engine may have pulled a few cars with it and the rest shoved around.

Author:  dinwitty [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

M Austin wrote:
Image


The smashed signal and its location suggests 2 things, the speeding engine hit it or buckling cars did this. If the engine, its derailing start happened before the signal, possibly before the start of the curve, if cars hit it, the engine was in the curve. Before the curve suggests an object in the track or an engine failure.

Author:  Ron Travis [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

We don't know how fast the train was moving when it hit the curve unless the 30 mph limit begins at the beginning of the curve. Obviously there must be a provision to slow the train down to 30 before it gets to the curve.

I understand that there is a warning sign in advance of the curve by some considerable distance. What does that sign say, and where is it in relation to the curve?

I don't know if the damage accounts for an 80 mph derailment. It might, but it seems questionable. It is possible that the engineer realized he was moving too fast and began braking in advance of the curve, thus slowing to maybe 60-70 before derailing.

Author:  superheater [ Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amtrak Derailment in Washington State

"The "79mph" speed limit argues strongly to me that PTC was not activated, which seems ridiculous for an 800 million dollar project ... but as with Bostian's mistake, it seems pretty clear that PTC would have prevented or reduced the severity of this, perhaps a couple of different ways. I will be particularly interested to hear the excuses when they start."

So would ATS; and its a tested, robust technology that wouldn't require billions of dollars to implement.

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