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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:34 pm 

Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 9:06 pm
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Location: Thomaston & White Plains
Thank you.

Howard P.

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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:46 am 

Joined: Thu May 24, 2012 1:37 pm
Posts: 1506
The issues about effectiveness matter in a preservation environment.

For example, many workers find it inconvenient or even impossible to work in some types of mask. That is particularly significant in areas like fall protection, where sudden dizziness might not be helped by proper "scaffolding and harness suspension" from a car roof or boiler top. But avoiding unwitting breath transmission, or contact transmission, remains just as critical in shop settings as elsewhere.

So the moral is to choose masks for 'work PPE that actually work and aren't feel-good or worse. Then keep masks "worn but not active" when working solo, and pull the things up when anyone is close, as a general principle. Wash your hands, put on nitrile or chloroprene gloves, and wash those -- and keep a container of 78% alcohol or comparable sanitizer handy for periodic use when you can't wash. Don't talk randomly and especiallydon't shout or pant in a co-worker's direction. And maintain the 'social distance' of about 6' between you and other people when you can -- remembering that it is significantly a measure of breath-droplet travel distance, and that the usual masks don't filter out SARS-CoV-2 that is in airborne droplets already. I have not yet proven this, but exhalation blowdown via one of the 'bandana' masks, e.g. if you cough or sneeze, can put the exhaled droplets entirely under clothing, across a very large "effective droplet filtration" area, from which the 'pressure exits' are directed away from most human respiration, even if there is no droplet capture provision in filter media inside the mask shell. (Yes, this presumes good fit or seal at cheeks and under eyes...)

Likewise, don't be dumb. Don't plan family gatherings that involve lots of exertion or shouting "because none of us is infected". Don't go places where casual contact with unmasked people shouting into cell phones is likely -- or you might touch a common surface like a door handle and then put your hand to your phone screen or your mouth without thinking, before you sanitize them. It is loss of diligence and situational awareness that poses the great risk ... not 'when your number's up, it's up' fatalism or mystic dread of unexplainable infection out of the blue.

In my opinion, a great deal of restoration and operation can be done, and not incidentally a great deal of actual public awareness of correct reasons and procedures offered, while staying open where possible. We will not be able to retrench from a policy of enhanced avoidance of infection until actual developed immunity levels from vaccination are achieved, or the results from existing 'naive' immune response are properly assessed in properly-chosen populations or cohorts ... likely more than the few months it will take for systemic vaccination to be completed. That means the masks, the sanitizer, the washing, and so forth will have to remain effectively 'ways of life' but the knotheaded shelter-in-place shut-it-all-down responses won't be sustainable if we expect a workable economy. Fortunately those two are far from mutually exclusive... done properly.

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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:54 pm 

Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2004 10:54 am
Posts: 1165
Location: Tucson, Arizona
Rick Rowlands wrote:

I see almost universal mask wearing in the usual retail outlets that I have been to, yet the virus continues to spread. There must be something else that is going on. Maybe to do with the aforementioned variety of mask efficacy?


From what I have read, it appears that a lot of the spread may be due to exposure from small groups where the use of masks is less likely-specifically family gatherings or at home. This is particular risk for large families or families whose homes are too small to permit adequate social distancing.

Museum professionals have estimated that one in four museums in the United States will fail during the pandemic and not reopen. Thus, it is not a surprise that some museums are being forced to sell off some parts of their collections to remain open. Old Pueblo Trolley is fortunate that we are close to paying off the mortgage on our main facility. While that won't pay off the private loans, it will mean that the organization will not have any real risk of defaulting, particularly since the private loans were made by members and never formally recorded (no written contract). We assume that the loan issuer will want to be repaid and continue to operate on that assumption, but it is entirely possible that the loan payments could be deferred or the loans written off.

Ironically, we may have actually benefited from the COVID situation in that we received a firm offer from the bar owner adjacent to our former car barn site. Due to the COVID restrictions, he needs more outdoor space for dining. He had previously expressed interest in our property and made an offer that would put us within a stone's throw of paying off the mortgage previously mentioned. The deal is in the process of closing and we are engaged in removing the rail and other items necessary to clean up the property.

As for vaccines, it is probable that most of our volunteers will get vaccinated on their own volition. Most qualify for early vaccination due to age or vocation. Under our county's vaccination protocol, I fall in classification 1(b) due to the fact that I am an essential court employee. I am planning to get vaccinated anyways, but the county is considering making vaccination mandatory for all county employees.

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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:27 pm 

Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:07 pm
Posts: 682
Location: B'more Maryland
Alan Walker wrote:

Museum professionals have estimated that one in four museums in the United States will fail during the pandemic and not reopen.


So here's an interesting thought about that fact.

What if the pandemic merely accelerated something that was going to happen anyway?

I'd be interested to hear how many of that 25% were going to survive another 5-10 years without Rona kicking sand in their face?

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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:49 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 1:51 pm
Posts: 9898
Location: Somewhere east of Prescott, AZ along the old Santa Fe "Prescott & Eastern"
Ed Kapuscinski wrote:
What if the pandemic merely accelerated something that was going to happen anyway?

I'd be interested to hear how many of that 25% were going to survive another 5-10 years without Rona kicking sand in their face?


[checks current news media stylebooks for current mandated response]

"YOU JUST WANT PEOPLE TO DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

[puts away stylebooks]

I see you've yet to discover that reason, logic, and rationale are forbidden from any such discussions about this pandemic.

Seriously.
Ask that type of question anywhere in anything outside a medical or insurance actuarial environment. You will be crucified as heartless, uncaring, unfeeling, malicious, evil, and deserving of having horrible things happen to you, if not anyone associated with or related to you as well.

It matters not one iota whether the question is apt or worthy of raising.


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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:00 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 7:19 am
Posts: 5934
Location: southeastern USA
Odd, I've seen several rational and scientifically supported postings above.

It's also been on my mind that if marginal operations do go by the wayside, it could allow stronger survivors to improve and increase their market share by offering a better quality product to more potential buyers. I agree that we were headed this way, and have been since about 1980. So, from that perspective, more of an acceleration than anything else.

Of course, who knows what may have been set into motion on a small local scale as a result of not going away so much? Interesting to see what results.

Unlike the Supreme Court, I don't believe corporations, nonprofits included, are morally equivalent to people and their legal standing as such is up for debate, hopefully soon....... my empathy for small businesses that have closed is for the people who depend on them, not their businesses separate brand and identities.

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Corollary: "He who does is doomed to watch those who don't repeat it anyway."


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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:10 pm 

Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2011 4:29 pm
Posts: 1519
Location: Youngstown, OH
Dave wrote:
Odd, I've seen several rational and scientifically supported postings above.

It's also been on my mind that if marginal operations do go by the wayside, it could allow stronger survivors to improve and increase their market share by offering a better quality product to more potential buyers.


However, not too many rail operations are in close enough proximity to be in direct competition with one another. Actually, we are in competition with other types of leisure time activities. Amusement parks, non rail museums, putt putt golf, bowling etc.

It is difficult for the survivors to offer that better quality product if all of their working capital was spent in just surviving through 2020 with no income.

We may also see fewer visitors even after this ends due to the fact that people have gotten used to staying home or have fears about going out in public.

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J&L Narrow Gauge Railroad
"The shortest and narrowest Railroad in Ohio"


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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:11 pm 

Joined: Thu May 24, 2012 1:37 pm
Posts: 1506
I can see now that this is going to go the way of the others. Before it does:
Quote:
"Just to clarify, when I refer to "only transfer by air," I mean transfer by exhaled air without any associated fluid droplets."

The type of virus any clone of SARS-CoV-2 represents will not transfer by exhaled air without fluid droplets. The envelope dries or denatures, rendering the spike ineffective and binding will not occur.

Some other types of virus do not have this characteristic; as I mentioned, H1N1 and other influenzas do not (and therefore require much more careful filtering if "masks" or space filtration are to be effective against actual infection.

Half the typical 'common cold' viruses are coronaviruses and they share the general characteristic. The only thing that makes this particular clone so lethal is its special affinity for 'just the wrong' structure in the body, a surface-converting enzyme. People are attributing weird, lethal, HIV-lentivirus-like characteristics to it, and overreacting to the actual facts: this virus dies easy, and is relatively easy to avoid with simple social and hygienic practices if those practices are carefully, seamlessly, and consistently practiced by everyone in social contact.

That is not to say we shouldn't push for proper immunization and proper treatments for those who can no longer form their own immune responses. That's not to say there may be some cases among those who observe the canon of proper responses ... or whose attention lapses at what turns out to be a crucial moment. But it does rule out plague hysteria ... just as it rules out letting the precautions go by the wayside as soon as "the government" relaxes the overstringencies... and these are things to remember as you run attractions that need to stay open in the interim.

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Last edited by Overmod on Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:04 am, edited 4 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:23 pm 

Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 2:22 pm
Posts: 1490
At the start of my moderator-deleted comment earlier today, I said it was not debating the effectiveness of the masks, and my post did not debate that or any other point. I simply asked a fair question about mask performance. No debate. So I do not understand what justifies the deletion. For organizations that want to consider “Protecting staff and visitors whilst remaining open for business” (as the above listed rules allow) I would think those businesses might be interested in the answer to my deleted question.


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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:46 pm 

Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:15 pm
Posts: 901
Ed Kapuscinski wrote:
Alan Walker wrote:

Museum professionals have estimated that one in four museums in the United States will fail during the pandemic and not reopen.


So here's an interesting thought about that fact.

What if the pandemic merely accelerated something that was going to happen anyway?

I'd be interested to hear how many of that 25% were going to survive another 5-10 years without Rona kicking sand in their face?


That’s my opinion for railroad museums, online education, work from home, etc. Everything has just been moved quickly into the future.

People will travel again of course, but we aren’t going back to life the way it was before. That’s why it’s important for rail museums and tourist trains to adapt so we can have a great future.


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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:30 pm 

Joined: Thu Mar 13, 2014 2:34 am
Posts: 493
Location: Granby, CT but formerly Port Jefferson, NY (LIRR MP 57.5)
Ed Kapuscinski wrote:
What if the pandemic merely accelerated something that was going to happen anyway?


I think I first heard this suggested in more general terms back in early summer 2020 by Eric Weinsten (physicist and Peter Thiel associate) on his podcast "The Portal". He argued that the pandemic is just accelerating every existing trend in society, technology, and the economy, an insight he credited to his economist wife Pia Malaney. So, what we are seeing is the future arriving faster than we expected.

-Philip Marshall


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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:27 pm 

Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2007 12:45 am
Posts: 752
Ron Travis wrote:
I simply asked a fair question about mask performance. No debate. So I do not understand what justifies the deletion.
I reported your post because a railway preservation forum is not the place to pose medical questions.

Go use a search engine or read medical forums and then share your findings, with attribution, here.

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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:45 pm 

Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2007 12:45 am
Posts: 752
Regarding possible declines in ridership, I think the internet hippo said it best:
Quote:
It's a tragedy and outrage that every day this pandemic is robbing businesses of 3,000 American customers


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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:59 pm 

Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:15 pm
Posts: 901
Chris Webster wrote:
Regarding possible declines in ridership, I think the internet hippo said it best:
Quote:
It's a tragedy and outrage that every day this pandemic is robbing businesses of 3,000 American customers


That’s a very good and tragic point. We have 353,000 less potential customers and supporters. :(


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 Post subject: Re: Covid-19 isn't done with us yet
PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:02 pm 

Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 2:22 pm
Posts: 1490
Chris Webster wrote:
Ron Travis wrote:
I simply asked a fair question about mask performance. No debate. So I do not understand what justifies the deletion.
I reported your post because a railway preservation forum is not the place to pose medical questions.



Yeah right. Not the kind of place to ask a medical question, but just the perfect place to discuss how to safely deal with a pandemic.


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