So, next obvious questions:

1) That market is no longer "worn out." Fifteen years later there's a whole new generation of "fanboys" eager to do it all over again, and they could find new customers from the public as well. The income from a series of NJ Transit trips would pay for a rebuild of 614. So why not?

2) You wore out that particular market. You couldn't find another one? SEPTA/Philly? NJT/Atlantic City? MARC/Balto./DC? VRE/northern Virginia? Metro-North? Chicago?

The fundamental truth is that the up and coming "fanboys" are not avid steam lovers but rather much more interested in early diesels vs. steam.

The sad reality is that the strong steam lover fraternity gets smaller every day as the last of the generation that knew steam in their younger years ( those born by 1940 or so latest) passes away.

Projects like the American Freedom Train, NJTransit 614 trips, revised NS program and many others certainly give birth to new,younger steam lovers but not nearly enough in numbers to replace those leaving us.

That fundamental fact plus the lack of mainline qualified steam era coaches which mandates the use of modern sealed window cars virtually insures a lack of sufficient interest by the remaining serious steam lovers.

Wish it weren't so....but it is.

I'm afraid that as far as excursions go the best we can hope for is limited speed rides with diesels in the consist pulling an all sealed window consist?? Hope I'm proved wrong.

IMHO-Ross Rowland

Countering evidence:

1) The massive groundswell of support for NS' revised steam program;

2) The utterly massive interest in and around UP's Big Boy project.

3) The continued interest in the Reading & Northern's 425--I personally watched folks who went, rode, and photographed that were way too young to have been involved around the BM&R era.

I'm not buying those convenient excuses, and neither should most of us. Those excuses could just as easily have been used in the 1990s. They weren't.

Try again.

Ross,

Why not ask NJ Transit about doing it again? No harm in just asking, and you never know what doors may open up as a result.

I have been told several times by "people in the industry" that official NJ Transit policy has changed since the aforementioned trips. The new policies reportedly pushed more (essentially all) financial risk upon potential operators, and mandated more advance payment for fees and services to be rendered. (As one member here said, "In three words: 'CASH UP FRONT!!'")

As to whether or why these alleged changes were instituted (if they were), I will leave to the speculation or assessment of the gentle reader.

Of course, the only way we're going to know any of this is if someone that actually has the means to operate mainline steam--Norfolk Southern, Fort Wayne, the 261 guys, etc., or even the Reading & Northern/Andrew Muller, who HAS operated steam trains over NJ Transit in the past--makes a formal proposal to NJ Transit. The only one of those that is likely at this point (for a variety of reasons having nothing to do with NJ Transit) is NS, or the Fort Wayne guys working in conjunction with NS again, and the sheer nature of such an NS proposal (its own train fleet, for example, combined with an existing relationship with NJ Transit, NS corporate wealth/assets, etc.) makes it an entirely different situation than a hypothetical proposal by, say, Strasburg, the 261/Northstar group, Rowland/614, etc.

I certainly wish it weren't so but the truth is that the fraternity of avid steam lovers grows smaller every year. Despite what we offered in a market with nearly 13 million people the vast majority (from the get-go) of our riders were daisy pickers not steam fans. By the 3rd. year I'd say that 99% of our riders were non railfans.

The other major issue is money. 614 must go through the 1472 day FRA workup before it runs again, an investment of approx. $ 750,000-$ 1,000,000. It's obvious that there's no way a few trips on NJT would come close to justifying that investment.

As I said I'm afraid the best we can hope for is some mainline steam even though it will almost certainly be limited speed, diesels in the consist and hauling all sealed window coaches. A little better than nothing I guess.

IMHO-Ross Rowland

Much as I hate to agree (and I'm sure Ross would want it to be so, either) with what Ross said about steam fans declining, I have seen it myself. Younger fans are more into 'classic diesels'. I never even heard of the concept until a few year ago but now I'm consistently running into a lot of people in their 30s or younger who outright declare that they have no interest in steam. they're all about the new.
Heck, I actually saw a group of 20s omethings camped out along the BNSF/UP/AMTK main between Seattle and Portland the day 4449 was heading south from Tacoma from the 2011 NRHS convention. And they had zero interest is getting shots of the steam powered consist. Nope, they were there to try to photo a CN diesel in a freight that one of them heard was going through that day. They said they didn't even care when 4449 was coming through and were annoyed that this train was messing up the regular traffic that day.
Time was, most train fans could into both steam and diesel. But like many things within hobbies in general these days, there appears to be a lot of segmenting of interests within the train fan community. And I don't mean by who's RR is their favorite...
I'm 44, and missed mainline steam entirely. I did manage to see the Porter fireless cooker working the NAR plant at Elizabethton, TN several times as a kid, but that's the only steam I ever got to see growing up outside of tourist operations. I feel I'm at the tail end of all the generation of train buffs who finds steam most complelling.
Holy cow, Ross, I had no idea you were writing a book.
As a huge Freedom Train fan (having seen it in person right before I turned 7), I'll be getting a copy as soon as it comes out!

Let's look at some numbers.

My personal experience, over decades, is that of the general population, approximately one out of 1,000 people can, in ANY FASHION whatsoever, be called a "railfan" or rail enthusiast--be it a model railroader with prototype knowledge, someone who would voluntarily take a train if offered it as a reasonable option, someone who knows the history of the local rail line, a HSR advocate/NARP member, whatever. That reduces 13 million to 13,000. Of that subset, one out of five, in my experience, would be a "card-carrying" railfan--a member of the NRHS or R&LHS or the local rail museum/excursion line, a subscriber to Trains or Railfan & Railroad or another similar periodical, a collector of timetables or ephemera, private car owner, whatever. That reduces 13K to 2,600 or so. Now, of that 2,600, let's speculate that maybe half of them are struggling with college tuition, working a low-end job and can't afford the day's outing, already rode the route in regular service, can't get away from spousal unit and 3 kids, is burned out by "been there, done that, got the belt buckle/cap," or just doesn't see the fascination.

Now, the knee-jerk response of some folks will be to point out that "hundreds" go out and go trackside with those expensive cameras and drive hundreds of miles to chase and shoot these trains. In my experience with recent trips (NKP 765 and CNJ 113/R&N 425 in Pa.), the "hardcore" were a distinct minority, vastly outnumbered by the locals and "new railfans" shooting with their cell phones and pocket digital cameras.

You can't sell the Ice Capades to only ice skaters; you can't sell fine dining only to people who cook; you can't sell the Grand Canyon only to geologists; and you can't sell mainline steam (or any excursion) only to railfans. Your objective should be in part to create future railfans--a tactic that worked very well in SR steam territory, where there were far more NRHS Chapters concentrated during SR/NS steam days.

Brother Mitchell raises an interesting point. We've often come across the fact (in our non-railroad experience) that you have to make the next generation of followers and supporters, not wait for them to come and fall into your lap. Maybe there is less interest, but I don't know if that necessitates throwing in the towel.

But maybe something like a 21st Century Limited or a Yellow Ribbon Express, or a Greenbrier Limited, would...... jes' sayin'.......

Is it possible to charter some Amfleet cars? I know they aren't pretty, but hey.

After the recent "poaching" of an excursion route plan from a preservation group by Amtrak's own internal marketing department, I suspect that many of the folks responsible for organizing a potential main line excursion would refuse to work with Amtrak, even if that meant "no excursion."

And I would suggest that, from a marketing standpoint, it would be like dropping a 1940s vintage Chevy engine into a modern Chevy Camaro or Malibu and expecting to get a vintage driving experience.

I thought we were over the "bash Ross Rowland' thing, popcorn or no popcorn.

The issue is not how many railfans we have, or if the 'fan base' has declining interest in steam. The problem is that the fan base alone doesn't help Ross or any other operator -- it's the fan base that reliably pays for multiple excursions. And yes, that's limited, and yes, I do think the numbers of people willing to shell out for it are declining.

Plenty of interest in the fan community for chasing and photographing steam excursions (and then charging a copyrighted price for the work product). How much of this trickles back down to the people who actually paid for the steam locomotive and all the work and supplies that went into running it?

Plenty of interest everywhere the steam locomotive stops -- it's fascinating how many people of all ages are fascinated with steam, and most of the things connected with it. But how the steam operators make a nickel out of all that interest is... less certain.

I for one, much as I love big steam, would not want to pay the cost of riding behind steam if I had to do it in sealed-window commuter stock, just as Ross indicated. And the NJT ex-EL main line is almost a poster child now for the sort of track where you would NOT want to run a big, fairly messy locomotive that might fail catastrophically and block the track for hours. If I were running NJT, especially in the wake of the contretemps after the Hurricane Sandy debacle (which has just put an all-new management team up at the top) I would only allow steam ops if liberally insured and paid for 'up front and in full'.

This is not really the place to discuss things like the Greenbrier Express or Amtrak specialty trains; those should have their own thread, and perhaps not in a 'preservation' related context. This is strictly about operations over NJT, using NJT rolling stock and running in between scheduled NJT trains. While it might be nice to replicate the Warnambool scheduled service (with NJT perhaps providing a pro-rata subsidy for its riders) I think Ross has fairly firmly demonstrated that the profit incentive for restoring 614 to operating condition would NOT be justified at any take rate sustainable in that (or probably any similar) market.

Thanks Mr. Ellsworth for your succinct comments. There's a tiny handful of wanna-be's that will always take every chance to argue with whatever I say and those of us who visit here regularly have long ago learned to ignore them.

The base economics are what they are. To justify an investment of approx. $ 1M a locomotive must have an operating situation where at least some of that can be recaptured over time. Sporadic excursions wherever they are don't come close to allowing anything close to a decent ROI.

Sad but true. Ross Rowland

So............ given this "all the steam guys are dying off/all the railfans want today are diesels" guff we're reading here....

What does this say, or imply, for the proposals of anyone who want to replicate from scratch ANY mainline North American steamer, let alone a 4-4-4-4?

Just forget it? Perish the thought?

Screw that, why is any major railroad bothering with any mainline steam program whatsoever, let alone resurrecting a world's-superlative steamer for such a program?

Look, I'M NOT the "Nattering Nabob of Negativity®" here...... the guy who trademarked the term is!