And now the Big Kahuna of the bunch:



It is reported that most employees are furloughed for the duration.

Latest casualty:

San Francisco's MUNI heritage streetcars and cable cars, shut down.

Another:Link: Tweetsie Railroad - Press Room

Governor of California just issued a mandatory order for all Californians to stay home tomorrow. USN is deploying USNS Mercy to Port of Los Angeles now and USNS Comfort will depart Norfolk for New York City as soon as her repair can be completed.

According to the USN, both ships will be used for non-Coronavirus cases as their wards cannot be partitioned effectively. That will permit the land based hospitals to use all beds for Coronavirus cases. Both ships are modified oil tankers that are designed for mass casualty events. Each ship has beds for 1,000 patients, 12 complete operating rooms and the requisite physical plant to provide hospital operations without external support. Each ship also has a USMC aviation unit with two UH-60 Blackhawks.

The activation of the two hospital ships is good news/bad news depending on how you look at the situation.

Here at home, both of Old Pueblo Trolley’s museums are closed through the end of the month. Both the City of Tucson and Pima County are closing all nonessential services and reducing public access to essential service facilities. No county employees are being furloughed as the county is aware of the needs of the employees and their families and needs all employees of closed or reduced staffed departments to be immediately available for reassignment if required.

The museums and shorter train rides that exist near major population centers (Tennessee Valley, Strasburg, Illinois Railway Museum and many others come to mind) will be able to bounce back a little... locals won’t have the money for big trips but will want to do something. At least I hope.

The more “destination” type places like Durango, Cumbres, etc. with higher ticket prices are going to have things really really hard I’m afraid.

This is going to be a really rough year...

From this side of the Atlantic, most, if not all, of the heritage operations seem to have shut down operations through to May, at least, though one or two have kept their non-rail operations (ie Coffee shops) open to a limited extent, to keep some (diminished) revenue coming in.
Our Government has been offering lots of financial support to all and sundry (particularly their supporters...) but, as yet, nothing much to the "heritage" sector, despite the money it generates for the UK economy. I'm not anticipating things getting out of this situation until later in the year, by which time it may be too late for some of them...

While this situation is certainly fluid to the max. it would strongly appear that this is going to be FAR longer than a month or two. Senior medical experts are clearly saying that until there is an effective vaccine ( 12-18 months away) we must continue to stay apart or the virus will keep spreading.

I would counsel anyone who asks to prepare a battle plan to be out of business for 18 months and go from there. If we get lucky and things return to normal sooner than that, great.

Plan for the worst....pray for the best.

Ross Rowland

Fascinating to watch all the usual sources of wackiness go wacky, but it's way past time for sensible trust-based action -- before the economy collapses beyond easy recovery. (It may already have done so...)

SARS-CoV-2 (either S or L) is not flu. It is similar to a common-cold virus; it spreads and acts just like a common-cold virus except that its specificity to certain receptors (ACE2 being one) is about 20x "better"; CDC estimates as of about March 9th were that about 98% of Americans would have a bad version of cold-like symptoms -- the misery being extended a couple of weeks due to novel antigens, but still ending without dramatic issues.

Most of the really 'prompt' deaths appear to be induction of cytokine storm via interleukins 6 and 10. One of the worst things it appears you can do is to treat CoVID-19 with typical "flu" immunomodulation treatments -- particularly Tamiflu and prednisone. That will have you in grave trouble pretty fast. Unfortunately before there was widespread or pervasive SARS-CoV-2 testing, this appears to be common procedure in hospitals. My understanding is that we know enough to be able to modulate the effect of cytokine storm if identified 'timely' (probably including prompt reduction of virus titer with 3CLpro inhibition; see below)

As a peripheral note awaiting better statistics: in all the reported outbreaks (possibly including Italy when the statistics are resolved) the prompt death rate appears to drop sharply after the initial spread of an outbreak -- look at the incidence rates week-over-week for the initial Wuhan pandemic. In my opinion (avoiding conspiracy theories) this may partly be due to prompt administration of 3C-like protease inhibitors 'prophylactically' to both geriatric and general population at risk, or admitted with early-detected cases of infection. The Chinese have been in volume production of effective 3CLpro inhibitors (for feline FIP, a rather highly related condition when you examine its etiology) since last February or so.

The second-leading cause of morbidity in "Boomer Remover Syndrome" is induction of viral pneumonia. Do not be fooled by typical 'coinfection' scares. Again as of March 9th, the statistical incidence of coinfection in CoVID-19 cases was a whopping total of FOUR. This might have increased some since then, but probably not too much. The issue with the viral pneumonia, in part, is that increasingly after about age 50/60 (depending on individuals) part of their immune response that targets 'novel' viruses of this type becomes progressively inactivated (hence the massive-synthetic-antibody treatment now being touted) and hence symptoms requiring oxygen-assisted mechanical ventilation may persist for days or weeks. (The bad news that 'nobody talks about' yet is that the antibody-replacement treatment doesn't help this; when the antibodies are normally cleared from the circulation, people will need 'booster injections', as near as I can tell in perpetuity...)

Now, It was pointed out as early as January that the total number of available ventilators in United States hospitals is about 100,000; do the math if we have any prolonged outbreaks (and see below for the bad news there). I am currently looking into repurposing CPAP with oxygen concentration into a 'home treatment' that can be mass-produced and government-subsidized for delivery, with good aftermarket use of the equipment after the pandemic problem is over (again see below). I see no technical or operational reason why this will not be effective in a great many cases where 'social distancing' of the over-60 cohort -- the only real 'social distancing' that is particularly long-term medically necessary -- proves compromised.

As mentioned, the CDC 'primary' spread is just like a common cold, from 6' or less exposure to airborne droplets. I do not agree with their overly-sanguine idea that very little transmission occurs from contact with hard surfaces (on which SARS-CoV-2, the S form at least, happily remains infectious from 18 to 48 hours) -- fortunately, effective sterilization is a 'known' technology here, involving first effective alcohol (or other agent) penetration of the viral envelope and capsid and denaturation of the viral RNA genome, and second effective removal of lipid or other surface contamination in which the lipid envelope of the virus coat can attach and 'shield' itself. That's an alcohol content no higher than about 78%, which is why plain 70% alcohol is better for viral disinfection than 91% or stronger, together with a 'skin-friendly' quaternary-ammonium-chloride (quat) formulation at effective strength (not that much as a fractional percent of composition. Flood this on about 2 minutes 'standing wet' and then wipe with an absorbent clean cloth (turning frequently) - then wash the cloths on as hot a cycle as you can with more quat in the detergent solution. Museums and other facilities can do this often (for example on an extended version of typical 'bathroom disinfection' schedule for public businesses) on commonly-contacted surfaces ... some of which may not be obvious, like glass edges of car door windows, until thought about carefully. At that point PPE, masks (for you, not to spread infection, more than attempting to prevent coughing spread; think about it) and simple impervious gloves followed by effective alcohol flood (probably not 'hand sanitizer' concentration or lotion admixture, and I wouldn't rely on 'sterile' packaging as an infallible proof against infection) are most of what needs to be mindfully observed to keep the spread away...

but here is bad news #1, which doesn't seem to be discussed much: some percentage of people who get over the symptoms of CoVID-19 (which is the disease syndrome, not the virus) will continue to shed the SARS-CoV-2 that gave them the disease -- possibly in very large amounts. I have seen case reports of at least two people analogous to "Typhoid Marys" who showed no symptoms of infection at all, but were shedding enormous amounts on test.

Bad news #2, which is related to this, is that a wide range of researchers are quite certain that exposure to SARS-C0V-2 and subsequent usual induction of CoVID-19 symptoms will be near-universal in non-isolated populations by the end of this year. (Which, please note, is right in the range where "vaccines will finally be available" -- I'd note, sometime after the first week in November but that would be a conspiracy theory of sorts -- and vaccination is unlikely to reduce the shedding problem in a great many instances, as it targets a different area of viral replication.

So, reading between the lines, all that the present means of enforced 'social segregation' (I see now the PC term is going to be 'social distancing') will do is prolong the agony for most Americans. And the dangerous instance rate in those most 'at risk' (logarithmically increasing above about age 60 for documentable reasons alone) will increase, perhaps quietly, right along with the increase in pervasiveness of infection/'recovery'.

In my opinion, what ought to have been done is high concentration of resources and therapies -- and enforced social distancing methodology -- on the greatest at-risk groups (the immunocomprised, the immune-system misprimed, and the elderly, as a start). and use normal self-isolation 'on the honor system' and subsequent disinfection care also on the honor system for the 'recovered' as the means of retarding the prompt spread of outbreaks into Italian-style pandemic going forward.

There are some things in American life that likely won't survive this, free public libraries being one and sit-down dinner restaurants as we now know them quite probably being another. On the other hand, almost all of these are already shut down sine die by knothead overreaction, with more to follow. I already see strict quarantine against even limited travel coming by early next week (the papers have already been issued to many railroaders that they must produce when stopped to prove they are 'essential workers') and that will crash much of what's left of normal economic balance.

A perspective on Coronavirus COVID-19 from Jim Wrinn at Trains:

http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/staff/archiv ... c.facebook

If you have glasses or sunglasses, wear them. It would help prevent you from touching your face or eyes. Glasses or goggles are part of the PPE at the hospital I work at along with a respirator mask when handling sick patients. Masks are in short supply now, but you should be able to get a hold of glasses of some kind easily.

Other than that, yeah just maintain distance and wash your hands. Nothing else you can do other than that.

The next few weeks can be found here: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... ction.html

I'm, sorry, but I am relying on gallows humor to get me through this, I'm not able to bunker myself until it passes.

The problem with the 'no virus' theory is that there are soooooo many independent proofs of how it's sequenced, how it's structured, what it has homology with that's supposed to cause cognate problems (specifically including FIP and efficient treatment therefor), even how the S- and L-strains differ and how the differences interact with specific human [my emphasis] receptors...

I'm not an epidemiologist, or an immunologist, or a virologist either, but I apparently know a hell of a lot more science, in a lot more areas, than the guy on YouTube who appears to be trying, but not succeeding, to be making some argument to authority while saying everyone else's authority is somehow wack. There comes a point, which we essentially passed no more than a few weeks after the Chinese originally sequenced SARS-CoV-2, when there is so much evidence from so many ways of looking at it that no one still adheres to the old pseudoscience paradigms, like 'detoxing' as a word, or dismissing Coley's work as fake science because he couldn't account for what he observed correctly at the time.

Now, saying that the coronavirus is anything remarkably lethal on the order of something like the worst clones of the 1918 influenza virus, or even the 2009 strain(s) of H1N1, is already overexaggerating the thing dramatically for 'all but a few' potentially-affected people. Were we to recognize this and set up our social-distancing programs purely to protect those at risk we'd have a lot less silly crap ... which is at least something I agree with those YouTubers about ... but pretending that this is a sort of microbiological moon hoax is not a way to go about that.

Every event in my area involving speakers, programs or clinics has been cancelled now.

I suspect some groups may adopt electronic distribution of presentations and programs if the crisis continues for a while. (If there is internet capacity to allow doing so.)

PC

GENTLEMEN/GENTLELADIES:

KNOCK IT OFF.

We're here to talk about this crisis's impact on our hobby, industry and vocation.

NOT the validity or lack thereof of the measures being taken, the validity of the presumed risk to the public, or crackpot theories.

We're not arguing about the game, or the choice of game, or the deck of cards in question.

THIS is the hand we've been dealt. And the game has been imposed on us.

How do we play accordingly?

I think it is absolutely necessary to point out when one person is speaking of a hoax. This has the potential to hurt many, many people, and needs to be squashed out as rapidly as possible. The nature of our work frequently requires extremely close contact with coworkers and/or passengers. We have a civic duty to ensure that reasonable measures be taken to prevent the transmission of this disease be minimized, and I'm seeing the measures being taken by most everyone in this thread.

But imagine that Loco112, whose identity is a secret, sits on the board of directors of a museum hosting a major event on their property soon. Barring any legal orders to cease social gatherings, the decision would be left up to the board. If one person with the same mentality of Loco112 is able to convince the rest of the board that this is a "hoax", then they run the risk of being responsible for making this pandemic slightly worse. The quackery can't be allowed to continue

Thankfully, I can see that this individual is in Dallas, and everything in this area is on lock down, so no damage can be done in this instance.