"Is it that the under 40 generation of railfans aren't interested in steam-era artifacts or simply a case of supply from a passing generation overwhelming demand from a much smaller base of people interested in trains to begin with."

I don't know if there's a decline in interest, and there's really no way to measure it. I suppose that there will still be an interest, given that there's still interest in such things as Revolutionary, Civil War and World War II reenactments.

What is different is that there are numerous and unprecedented markers of economic distress among twenty-somethings, such as student loan debt, household formation rates, percentage of college graduates residing with parents, proportion of individuals working outside their field of study and part time, and proportion of individuals renting their domicile.

Prices won't recover until these trends are reversed; and there's no sign that colleges and universities are ever going to be exposed to market forces that will force them to constrain the costs they impose on students.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/grads-sh ... d=19486878

http://www.forbes.com/sites/billgreiner ... formation/

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/per ... /32015421/

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... oyment.php

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/24/busin ... .html?_r=0

Oh yes, after a couple decades of being ignored, devalued and diminished, twenty-something males now make less than their female counterparts.

Superheater,

I would add to your list of unprecedented markers, the percentage of college graduates able to find a job in this flat economy.

The studies I have read recently indicate that disposable income is steadily dropping for most of the US population, and in addition many individuals who have to pay for their own health insurance have experienced large increases in the premiums this year, further reducing their spending on hobbies and non-essential items. Add this to the changing demographics and the steady passing of the older railroad enthusiasts.

The market for railroad industry technical publications has declined to the point that right now, if someone needs an engine manual or a locomotive service manual, it is often less expensive to buy an original on eBay (if the item is available) than to have a copy made.

PC

I started to read this book about the change in social structures. The author uses bowling as a metaphor for traditional social activities in general. I think it is relevant in addressing the general change in people "joining" in social activities such as NRHS meetings and volunteering at museums, collecting, etc.

Wesley

There are a number of factors for the changing markets for railroad memorabilia. The biggest has been eBay. Before eBay, a collector searching for a specific item had to mainly rely on what the local market turned up. When eBay started, there was a steep rise in number of items and prices due to pent up demand and people pulling "grandma's old plate" out for sale. With the past recession and saturation of the market with previously supposed 'rare' items, prices have come back down. You will still see uneducated sellers asking outrageous prices on common china items, but they don't sell them. On the flip side, I've recently encountered auctions that were not well advertised where china went, literally, for pennies on the dollar. Those same items show up on eBay a week later, and sell for the expected market price.

The rare items, be they china, lanterns, engine equipment, books or other hardware, still bring good to outrageous prices. What has seen a drop are those items where the Internet market helped unearth previously unknown caches that flooded the market.

For families seeking to dispose of a loved ones collection, research into what is desirable is paramount. If they have cases upon cases of generic rr magazines, the local museum, youth center, or Goodwill is often the best venue, if they need a tax write off. We need to expand the hobby and that's probably the best way to excite young minds.

The Colfax Railroad Museum actively seeks artifact donations. We have the nation's largest public display of dining car china, with over 2300 pieces in the collection and about 2/3 of it on display at any one time. We also have extensive displays of lanterns, signs, signals, uniforms, desk ornaments. Our library has over 1000 hardback books, 2400 softbound items, 500 videos and the darwings for the Northwestern Motor Co. We do tell donors upfront that any duplicates will be subject to sale to enhance the collection and maintain it. So far, not one donor has declined after being informed of that condition. Our new library building, an 1898 Soo Line depot, is planned for restoration completion, as soon as we raise another $35,000. It will provide an additional 1200 sq ft of environmentally controlled storage and 500 sq ft of open file library space.

715-225-0688

I think it's also worth noting that, in many cases, younger people simply don't have the connection with older railway antiques that had been the genesis of collecting the stuff.

Think about it, there are very, very few people alive under the age of 40 who have ever had dining car service anywhere but Amtrak. Unless they've seen them in other collections, or museums, or happen to randomly discover it, where would their interest in railroad china come from?

I bet a lot of this stuff is similar.

You can't forget that a lot of this is driven by someone's familiarity with this stuff.

Personally, I'd rather have the signature Conrail "bug eye" markers off of an SD80mac than some cups and saucers from the B&O.

As a young person (I just turned 34), and semi-major collector (I have over 100 lanterns, nearly 100 locks/keys and more hardware I can hide from my recent wife) I have several comments on this very interesting topic.

First and foremost as the "future" of this hobby, buying railroad memorabilia is very much a calculated risk. I too think the days of a $5000 globe are slowly coming to an end. Each major purchase I make I have to ask myself, if something happens to me is the market out there to make sure my wife gets a sizable amount of this purchase back? Sure, it exists currently, but 20 years from now, well that's a different story. I truly think this hobby is going to be downsized in some form of fashion simply because of the amount of "hobby" options that are out there. I do think there will be collectors, and it will be interesting to see the amount of collections "daylighted" so to speak due to deaths,retirements, etc. in the next 10 years. The amount of product reentering the market could very well drive prices down. We are already seeing the bottom fallout of high dollar items, which I think will continue to decline as the "market" massively consolidates.

The second piece is disposable income with young people. Most simply don't have it. After 4 years of college, two years of graduate school, not to mention shear living expenses during that time - the amount of student loans I have would buy a VERY nice car. However, for my generation, it's simply the cost of doing business. It wasn't until I got a "dream" job and (thankfully) little to no major financial commitments at home (no kids) that afforded me the opportunity to purchase my railroad memorabilia mentor's collection last year. I got a great deal (for both parties involved), but most 32 year olds wouldn't be in that position. 10 years ago "kids" didn't have monthly $100 cell phone bills, $150 cable bills, $50 dollar internet bills - yet all these are requirements today. Unlike many collectors now, a young person cannot look at collecting these antiques as an "investment" that will help fund our retirement.

Auctions - will they exist in their current form 10 years from now? Our younger generation wants that instant satisfaction, but are we willing to travel two days to bid against someone for an old collection when we can get on eBay from our recliner, bed, lake, or football game on our phone? I just won two cool items from Golden Spike Enterprises Auction which you still have to pay 20 bucks just to get the catalog to bid. It is an auction format that has worked for years, but in the future I'm sure this format will have no choice to change. Sue Knous's auction format is proof of that.

And let's be honest, to most young people, getting into the memorabilia collecting can be intimidating. Showing up to train shows me and my two friends are generally the youngest "collectors" there. More and more train shows are becoming model shows, which is sad, but more evidence of where the hobby is going. I mean who can argue with the entertainment factor from O scale or HO Scale trains that have better sounds than their 1:1 counterparts which you can control from your phone or iPad? I love train shows because I love talking to people, meeting people and discussing the hobby - but this too is endangered because of the trend towards social media. Even this "forum" can be considered out of date by many (there are at least four to six major Facebook pages dedicated to collecting). Young people no longer need "train shows" to connect to fellow hobbyists. Hell, I have it simply by typing this message and your eyes reading this message.

Then there is responsibility. It's my responsibility as a young person to get more people engaged in this hobby. One of the great things is I've got a good friend who goes with me to nearly every show. He grew up in central Indiana and is a Wabash fan. Me, growing up in Kentucky, am a Southern and L&N fan. We aren't competing against each other and can help each other out with the search. It's my responsibility to show people it's more than buying a lantern and placing it on a shelf to collect dust. It's my responsibility to know (and teach) the history of the item, how it was utilized, where it came from and its connection to modern day railroading. It's my responsibility to know giving someone a 10 dollar ink blotter can start someone down the path of collecting and thus expanding the market base 10 years from now.

There is also a great responsibility among those of you that are most often twice my age. If you're ready to sell your collection, whether as a whole lot, or piece by piece, if you're in a situation that a young collector wants it, or that person that has been haggling you for years that you know is going to take it and sell it at the next train show, please consider selling it to that true collector, even if it's 10,15,20 dollars less than what that guy will offer you. You have no idea what that means to a young person. It's the older generations' responsibility to have patience with young ones, reach out to them at train shows. Be nice. Just because they don't have $1000 in their pocket today doesn't mean they won't have it when you're on your death bed and need to sell your stuff before your kids take it to the local antique stores and sell it for pennies on a dollar. Why if I had a dollar the amount of times I've been dismissed at a train show because I'm "young" and didn't "appear" the part, I promise you I would have a bigger collection than I have now!

I'm lucky I've had some great teachers that taught me the hobby for the last 20 years, I just hope I can return the favor to someone. Sure, there probably won't be as many to share this hobby with 20 years from now, but that doesn't mean we won't have a hobby.

In closing, let me leave you with a picture I took of one of my favorite lanterns in my collection. This photo recently appeared in the latest edition of the Railroadiana Express. I would venture a guess I am among the youngest members of Key Lock and Lantern as well as RCAI. This is what I mean by combining the "old generation" with the "next generation." The ability to make this connection is what makes this hobby so interesting. I hope to see you all in Gaithersburg next week.



There are so many facets of this hobby that I love. Besides railfanning, collecting railroad memorabilia is at the top of that list. Growing up in Georgetown, KY the majority of my collection is focused on the famed Southern Railway subsidiary, the Cincinnati New Orleans and Texas Pacific Railway (CNO&TP). On June 10, 2015 I received a lead from a friend of a double-marked CNO&TP M.M. Buck Bellbottom with Queen and Crescent clear etched globe located just up the road from me in Columbus, OH. I traveled on a steamy June day to pick the lantern up and on my return trip down I-75 I knew my good friend, Dave Isaacs, an engineer on the "modern day" CNO&TP, was running train 147 south from Cincinnati to Burnside, KY. After hauling the mail through northern Kentucky, I finally got ahead of the train around Williamstown, KY. I was able to get to my hometown of Georgetown just in time to set the lantern up at the site of the former Georgetown depot in time for 147 to blast through town with three modern EMD SD70ACEs on the point. For one last time, the 100 plus year old lantern protected the very railroad she was built for. Now if only I could have rebuilt the old depot, inserted a wimble equipped green and gold PS-4 on the point of the train and witnessed the Frankfort and Cincinnati exchanging boxcars full of bourbon!