We need to make a distinction here. This is technically correct. A ten spot would be a conspicuous hallmark price and nothing more. It's essentially doomporn to attach some inordinate significance to any specific price, predict its imminence and dire consequences. I am on record here as saying in "the short run" barring some cataclysmic event; it's highly unlikely.

Now a reasonable person might ask why do I say that's unlikely in the short run (keep in mind, short run has a definition in economics) and the answer is income and sunstitution effects. When something you buy goes up in price, you not only look to buy less, but you look for alternatives. The problem with diesel is there isn't a lot of alternatives and so it's likely that the ultimate brake on incessant price increases will be significant general economic problems; recession.

However, increasing prices in general are a problem. For the transport of things we buy; which is typically by truck, there aren't a lot of good alternatives, without enormous capital outlays and significant operational drawbacks. Here's a price history:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... US_DPG&f=W

Although the price has tailed back a bit; likely dur to speculative sales of futures contracts it's still really high @ $5.14/gal.


Go to your supermarket. Look, for example at the price of any item. I am a fan of Stok cold brew coffee. At Giant, within the past year or so, the regular price for a 48 oz bottle was 4$.99, with ocasional sales for $3.99. Yesterday, it was $6.19.

I have a Takeya home brew bottle on the way, and we'll be trying to make a palatable alternative from freshly ground beans.

https://takeyausa.com/pages/search-resu ... ee%20maker

The particular resistent individual whose demand is price inelastic still has to make sure there's money at the end of the month and will cut back on something else.

Gas first crossed over $1.00 a gallon in the late 1970's. Was a $1.00 a big deal? Not really. Ninety-three cents was still a long way from the 30 or 35 cents per gallon I remember from when I first became conscious of prices.

So in summary, we shouldn't run around like decapitated chickens warning of impending skyfall, but we shouldn't be glib about the effects of increasing prices on a key resource, either. There was a lot of pain in the 1970's because of OPEC and the cartelization of oil, we've just forgotten it, except for distant memories of my father telling me to shut the door, I can't afford to heat the neighborhood.

Much of the work on torrefied-wood fuel has been geared towards its use in co-firing with pulverized coal; it is a key factor in some of the clean-coal approaches that actually work as intended.



If it is distilled properly, it has only slightly less heat content than hard coal, and inherently contains fluxing agents that help with glassing and sulfur content. If it throws sparks as a locomotive fuel, it was inadequately compressed and 'bound' during torrefaction and preparation.

It has disappeared because, while it is zero-net-carbon when sourced from renewable woodstock (with as much as possible of the torrefaction heat provided from the wood distillate and the 'forestry' and preparation done with something like B100 diesel) it is most assuredly not zero-carbon. I'd still pursue it as being a reasonable source of solid-coal fuel, but it will not burn like bituminous unless inadequately torrefied to make it actual, proper torrefied fuel.

Meanwhile, as I recall, at least one of the wood-burning modern locomotive stories involved eucalyptus. There are some woods (the California wood that was mentioned being a candidate) that have the ignition characteristics of Georgia fatwood or better... but you'd still torrefy it and keep the volatiles for better purposes, and avoid the black smoke, lavish sparks, and low fuel-bed lifetime that you'd get otherwise...

Two weeks ago I was told a ton of nut size anthracite heat coal was ~ $ 425 a ton delivered in north central Pennsylvania.

The cheapest advertised price for a you fetch pickup truck bed of split hardwood was $40 - which is usually a face cord - and may or may not be properly seasoned. That is like the spot price.

Most folks who heat with purchased wood have dealers they have been using for years and are very likely to have their winter supply already taken care of, if not on the property now.

YMMV

Brian

Of course you'ns know where Kelly used to work, there are surface transportation alternatives that do not use fossil fuel at all.

Much of the road transportation horsepower is fuelled by hay and oats.

The other railroad there has water power available. Two of the generators at Safe Harbor generate 25 Hz. They have 60 hz to 25 Hz converters if they need more amps.

Phil Mulligan

For what it's worth, off-road diesel in east-central Illinois, (Monticello, specifically) has been coming down.
Pre-polar, we filled up everything here for the event, and to otherwise have full tanks over the winter to minimize moisture infiltration. That was November 3rd, and $4.75/gallon.
During Polar, we buy fuel every week for steam generator and HEP powerplant.

November 18 we paid $4.37
November 21 we paid $4.30
November 29 we paid $4.15
December 3 we paid $3.60
Today we paid 3.60. Our distributor said it looked like it might be coming down another dime at lunchtime, but don't know if it did.

Kent

Freightwaves has a discussion.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/bench ... rket-slide