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| Question for Diesel Operators: With oil @ $100/barrel https://www.rypn.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=24308 |
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| Author: | superheater [ Mon Nov 12, 2007 4:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Question for Diesel Operators: With oil @ $100/barrel |
Diesel could be going well beyond $3.00/gallon. Beyond the growing Chinese and Indian driven global demand, the Fed has made the calculation that it will bail out overextended mortgagees (and the idiots that thought it was riskless to allow borrowers to borrow without appreciable collateral and with adjustable rate mortgages) by keeping interest rates low, apparently too low to keep the dollar from sliding against other currencies. I suppose they are taking former Treas Sec John Connolly's thought-its our currency, but your problem. Devalued currencies are great for debtors and exporters-bad for savers and importers. Nice example of the art of politics being the art of providing conspicuous and distinct benefits with hidden and diffuse costs. Bottom line, expect more price increases. It will get worse if large holders of greenbacks decide to dump or OPEC decides to switch to Euros. Intrestingly, the effects of the slide are really having some odd effects-I just read a piece that some supermodel is insisting she be paid in Euros rather than $$. Additionally, you can bet that big players will increasingly buy (even more) futures/forward contracts to mitigate operating cost risk, this means spot buyers are left with whatevers left from uncmmitted production. If there's a hurricane/geopolitical event, etc-the price will really vary with any threatened or actual disruption to the supply chain. What if anything will/have you done to try to deal with rising fuel costs? |
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| Author: | dr dodge [ Wed Nov 14, 2007 3:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Question for Diesel Operators: With oil @ $100/barrel |
I voted, but am not an operator We will be soon enough, and we are seriously researching non- coal/oil fired steam. green alternates will be the museums friend in the future dr |
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| Author: | mxdata [ Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Alternate fuel lessons learned |
Boise introduced their MK1200G LNG switchers in the mid-1990s. They work just fine and are still in service. They have ended up noplace but Los Angeles, at least that I know of. When you look at the special equipment needed for fueling, the risks involved and the highly variable price of the fuel, you get an appreciation why they are all in one spot in an area that has a particular problem that they help mitigate. We went through the biodiesel discussion here several months ago and the results seemed to demonstrate that nobody presently has a really good handle on what cost advantages there might be (if any). Remember all the great "heavy fuel" schemes of the 1970s oil crises that were supposed to save diesel operators lots and lots of money? A bunch of marine companies converted their tugs to burn heavy fuels and guess what happened? The price of the fuel went through the ceiling. And so did the engine maintenance due to Vanadium corrosion. Remember when diesel was a lot cheaper than gasoline, so the auto manufacturers all started introducing diesel cars and small trucks? Pretty soon diesel was a lot more expensive than gasoline, and it still is. Things could be worse though. Imagine if you were buning oil fuel at 7% thermal efficiency rather than 35%. Anybody for burning trees? Oops, sorry...that's politically incorrect nowadays. Guess we will all just have to freeze in the dark. MX (Obviously not my real name) |
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| Author: | Taylor Rush [ Thu Nov 15, 2007 12:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Alternate fuel lessons learned |
Something that stunned me is that even in Oregon, if you aren't cutting your own, wood is appalingly expensive. We've got a wood burning Heisler, and an oil burning Mikado. Even though the oil is recycled motor oil with almost no processing, the price keeps going up. Maybe a wind powered train is the ticket.................we're back to what the B&O was trying 180 years ago. Thanks, Taylor |
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