| Railway Preservation News https://www.rypn.org/forums/ |
|
| Demographics Presenting New Challenges https://www.rypn.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6154 |
Page 1 of 1 |
| Author: | Superheater [ Wed Jun 25, 2003 2:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Demographics Presenting New Challenges |
The Malthusians among us may rejoice at this statistic, but the ever-falling U.S. (and western world for that matter) birthrate (see link) presents major problems for preservationists in years to come. It has been noticed and described as a problem by political writers like Pat Buchanan and Ben Wattenberg, although generally in terms of preserving national power, prosperity, identity and sovereignty, which of course may be more important things than “running ol’ 99” . Hidden in the statistic is the fact that legacy populations-those individuals who have a direct ancestral link to the U.S industrial era and those with above-median income (individuals who have the “disposable” income which is any business’s lifeblood) have even lower birthrates than the national average. Unabated (there’s no sign of reversal), this trend could make the current liability morass seem insignificant. In the short term, it will mean that our current primary marketing tools we have will largely become increasingly less effective. “Thomas the Tank Engine” and other child-oriented attractions will be chasing a smaller and smaller audience of children driving disposable parental spending (especially when the “affluent”/”legacy” birthrates are considered). Have you noticed that McDonald’s-who pioneered the use of “gatekeeper marketing”-which recognized that the family “buyer” was often its children, is developing alternative themes to the Ronald McDonald characters? The only other successful theme I can think of - “ancestral affinity” marketing (see how your great grandfather lived) is of course useless when your great grandfather wasn’t anywhere near that old steam engine. Government spending for healthcare will increase from two fronts-first from the increasing proportion of older individuals meeting with the infirmities of age and second, from the increasing medical assistance made to immigrants-who will be increasingly attracted to the U.S. as wages rise. Already, two thirds of Pennsylvania spending is for health and welfare items. This obviously means less money for museums and historic activities. I can see this now from my perch in state government as Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell has already held up some historic/preservation funding (while eagerly funding a high visibility stadium as a “targeted investment”). Finally, in 10 or so years (this has been going on for some time) we will see less and less individuals available to volunteer and work. When it comes time for the “next generation”, they will increasingly not be there. Obviously, this is not in our power to change. However, to ignore the trend is akin to playing ostrich, even if we don’t immediately understand what the next step is. Low Birth Rate Statistics superheater@rrmail.com |
|
| Author: | RH [ Wed Jun 25, 2003 3:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Demographics Presenting New Challenges |
In spite of the possible long term impact on the preservation community; I have to say, thank God. In a world of over 6 billion people any population with a declining birth rate is a good thing. Studies indicate that increased education (among women in particular) almost always leads to a lower birth rate. Of course along with education often comes greater wealth and the ability to plan families. In short (and this will offend some) people who know better and have a choice (and are not prohibitted by their religion from birth control) do not go and have 9 kids. That many of a given persons offspring are not needed in this world and I don't care who you are. But back to the matter at hand; the trend of lower income people rising up to the middle class has only increased. While poverty can continue for generations, more and more people are breaking the trend, and their children will in turn be the next generations paying fans. The trick is to appeal to the populations who will start raising families in the next decade; get them out to see and enjoy it and in turn they will bring their kids in years to come. |
|
| Author: | George Kaplan [ Wed Jun 25, 2003 5:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Demographics Presenting New Challenges |
To those so enlightened by your trend data, go ride it and see it while you can. Too bad no one thought to start a Roman chariot preservation fund or museum a couple of millenia ago. Facts aside, many museums will still be doing business as usual until the last nonagenarian member goes to his grave. Rest (or rust) in peace. Sed libera nos a ferro. Amen. |
|
| Author: | Superheater [ Thu Jun 26, 2003 8:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Demographics Presenting New Challenges |
> In spite of the possible long term impact on > the preservation community; I have to say, > thank God. In a world of over 6 billion > people any population with a declining birth > rate is a good thing. Why? What's so special about the number 6 billion? As I recall, God said "be fruitful and multiply". In any case, you misread. I didn't say the WORLD birth rate is declining-its not. Most of the world is busy assuring its survival, the western world is not. The current situation means that In any case, instead of just buying into that alarmist nonsense from Paul Erlich, do a google search on (the late) Julian Simon. Simon made a fool out of Erlich-who sold a lot of books recycling Malthus' propositions. Of course Erlich is a "practical" man and as the quote goes "practical men are usually the slaves of some defunct economist" The funny thing about a great many adherents of "world" population control- they never apply it to themselves. One such individual, the great intellectual and polo player Prince Charles, took the time to create two more mouths to feed. If there's anything less productive and more consumptive than the offspring of a hereditary monarchy, I'd like to see it. superheater@rrmail.com |
|
| Author: | G.W. Laepple [ Thu Jun 26, 2003 7:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Demographics Presenting New Challenges |
No matter how we choose to explain it, attendance at rail attractions, museums or otherwise, is in decline. I believe there are three reasons, and I don't have them listed in any particular order of importance. First, fewer and fewer people have daily contact with railroads. Only a small percentage of Americans ever ride a "real" train, and an even smaller number has any regular interaction with railroads. There are no local freights, station agents, towermen or Railway Express guys to talk to any more. Nobody waves from the caboose, and the guys in the cab are generally hidden behind tinted glass. If there is contact with a railroad, it's when a train momentarily blocks a crossing, or worse, when a wreck spews hazardous materials that requires an evacuation. Secondly, there are fewer than 150 steam locomotives currently in regular service, and they are concentrated in relatively few states. Many of them operate only occaisonally. Many Americans would have to travel several hundred miles to experience one. I don't care whether it's only an 0-4-0T, a steam locomotive possesses much more animation than the shiniest F-unit or even an Alco! Going for a ride behind a GP9 or a 44-tonner just isn't very interesting. And if/when people do come to ride, they don't want to see rows of rusting rolling stock and engines, ride in a coach with smelly toilets and dirty windows and be slapped by overhanging branches if they try to look out the window. We must deliver an "experience" with a context the traveling public understands. Finally, the demographics in America are changing rapidly. Not only do fewer and fewer people recall the golden age of railroading when everyone had a relative who worked for the railroad, but the swelling number of immigrants come from many countries that have no railways or railway tradition. I don't know what the solution is. As things are moving right now, in another 25 or thirty years, operating rail museums will be a thing of the past. A few lucky folks may get to ride a train once in a while, but even places like Strasburg and Steamtown are going to have to fight for a piece of the pie. By that time, people will probably look at one another and shrug "Train? What's a train?" K4s1361@hotmail.com |
|
| Author: | Rick [ Thu Jun 26, 2003 9:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Demographics Presenting New Challenges |
Operating museums will only decline if they continue to offer their time honored crappy ride experience. I'm a big time rail enthusiast and even so the thing about putting me in a ratty old coach and running me up a rickety branch for 5 miles and return doesn't interest me very much. Its boring, kids get fidgety real fast and the low speeds and trees coming through the open windows all combine to persuade the visitors to "never again!". Here in Ohio I would say that the now defunce Ohio Central and the stil running Hocking Valley Scenic are the best. The others all fit the above paragraph. I took an ex girlfriend and her child to ride the Bluebird in Toledo and she swore to never ride it again. We must reinvent the experience or we will die. BTW, the rusty lines of old equipment is also a big turn off to todays visitor. Tod Engine Foundation rick@todengine.org |
|
| Author: | Fred Ash [ Fri Jun 27, 2003 10:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Demographics Presenting New Challenges |
> “ancestral affinity” marketing (see how your great grandfather lived) is of course useless when your great grandfather wasn’t anywhere near > that old steam engine. > Obviously, this is not in our power to > change. However, to ignore the trend is akin > to playing ostrich, even if we don’t > immediately understand what the next step > is. I don't mean to flame.....but be careful of references to a person or group's an “ancestral affinity.” I'm not a big fan of political correctness, this can be a delicate subject. That said, the number one demographic problem for railroad museums is that half the population of the U.S. is, was and will remain female. My observation is that few women seem attracted to the junk-yard warrior appeal of most rail oriented attractions. Stop worrying so much about 10% of the population that didn't have trains near their place of birth and start thinking of ways to attract the 50%. That half of the population also has a major say in how the other 50% spends their leisure time. Illinois Historic Structures fred_ash@bankone.com |
|
| Author: | Superheater [ Fri Jun 27, 2003 1:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Demographics Presenting New Challenges |
> I don't mean to flame.....but be careful of > references to a person or group's an > “ancestral affinity.” I'm not a big fan of > political correctness, this can be a > delicate subject. That said, the number one > demographic problem for railroad museums is > that half the population of the U.S. is, was > and will remain female. You aren’t flaming, just illustrating how destructive, suspicious and self-censoring political correctness has become. I don't mean that as an personal insult or criticism. (adherents of PC are of course the ones who scream about “censorship” and “chilling effects” when somebody dares object to making five figure grants to some talentless dolt who sticks a crucifix in urine because its “art” and its funny how they don’t mind irritating SOME people with abandon) In any case, I may not have presented the concept clearly. “Ancestral affinity” is the creation of an interest in the past within the present generation by linking the period in question, its artifacts and practices to one’s OWN past- by inspiring an individual to understand how members of their OWN FAMILY lived in the past, reminding people that the people on the grainy old films weren’t just indefinite people, but somebody’s (great) (great) grandparents. It’s the difference between thinking of an old coach as something that brought immigrants from Ellis Island to Tin Bucktoo and thinking of it as how your (great) (great) grandparents brought YOU to the new world. As for attracting women, I'm all for that. Its been my experience that they are often passionate about geneology, which is something men would do well to understand. There's no shortage of women going to historic places that don't feature machinery, probably because the focus is on people. It has nothing to do with ethnicity or race, at least as I’m thinking of it. superheater@rrmail.com |
|
| Page 1 of 1 | All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group http://www.phpbb.com/ |
|