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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 1:32 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 1:51 pm
Posts: 12151
Location: Somewhere east of Prescott, AZ along the old Santa Fe "Prescott & Eastern"
Crescent-Zephyr wrote:
Yeah... nobody shows up when 611 visits Strasburg and the NCTM ;)


Could someone from Strasburg or NCTM please compare/contrast the numbers for 611 events versus Santa/Pumpkin/etc. trains?

We paid attention to 611 at Strasburg and NCTM because it was one of the outrageously few times (compared with, say, the UK) any "guest steamer" was allowed to perform in an area well away from its home turf for a "limited time only" affair (other examples: MILW 261 at Steamtown 1995-96, SP 4449 in Michigan), and really the first time they were able to offer the "whole range" of experiences, including "hand on the throttle" and the like. And, yes, it garnered young fans that never got to see or ride behind 611 in NS excursion duty.

Santa, the Easter Bunny, and the pumpkin patch are still bigger potential draws for the far larger pool of parents of young children.


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 1:36 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 5:55 pm
Posts: 1109
Location: Warren, PA
The nuggets in here are the comment about not only events-based, but whatever the passenger expectations are - which may be generated from various impressions and even your own marketing and history of the line.

That's why even after 30 years of this, whenever we do a strategic plan / economic impact analysis, I LOVE to do a ridership survey over a season. The only opinion that really matters isn't mine, or your boards, or the railfans, or the mothers club.... it's a broad-based survey of what your passengers expect, care about, and are willing to pay for.

We almost always ask something along the nature of 'would you be more interested in a steam locomotive experience if it cost X$ more per ticket? We NEVER just ask the blank steam locomotive question as no sane person doesn't recognize the costs involved. And I've learned that a lot of times, I've called it wrong - either there's less interest in steam than I expected, or more... but at least you've got the opinion of your market and riders (and you can go with non-passengers as well via Facebook Survey Monkey or similar) and settle some of the natural infighting that happens here. This becomes the tiebreaker and may even stop an internal civil war.

I had one client that had an EXTREMELY strong dissatisfaction rider survey reaction based upon no steam locomotive. Huh. Why? They featured an historic shot of a 4-4-0 on their railroad on the brochure. Nowhere did they say the trips were diesel powered, which they were. Yes, lots of people expected a steam locomotive even though the historic shot was clearly from the 1860's. Expectations were created, and missed. I had another client that had a Hancock steam whistle on an RS-1, and over 50% of the riders thought it was a steam locomotive. Forehead slap.

Back in the 80's I made the pilgrimage to Cleveland to ride behind 4070, and it was one more trip where the call to the gate didn't make it and a Chessie GP40 showed up at the last moment. They marketed the line based on an all-day Cleveland-Akron 'steam trip' and it had become so erratic on the 4070 that ridership plummeted to around 12K a year. Same railroad today, mostly events based, all diesel, well over 100K riders every year, and with a nice annual visiting steam program from 765. There's lots of examples out there to drive you crazy about conclusions in advance, that's just one of my favorites. DSNG with the fire-season diesels will become another.


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 2:04 pm 

Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:15 pm
Posts: 1799
Randy... when you are doing an expensive “strategic plan / analysis” do you ever ask the people selling tickets / answering the phones to keep track of guests who ask about the motive power, change plans because of motive power, etc.?


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 2:26 pm 

Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:15 pm
Posts: 1799
And Alex, I’m not against event trains at all. Many years ago I was very involved in the creation of a Christmas train and I helped in the naming and general operations of it. It’s been extremely successful.

But I don’t believe 98% of guests are visiting for an event or event train. I also don’t think 98% of guests visit Strasburg specifically for steam.

I think the best type of events are ones that fit naturally with the mission / market of the operation. The Old Car Festival, Civil War Weekend, and Motor Muster weekend at the Henry Ford is one of the best examples as well as the Hesston steam Show, and various events at Illinois Railway Museum.


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 3:11 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 1:51 pm
Posts: 12151
Location: Somewhere east of Prescott, AZ along the old Santa Fe "Prescott & Eastern"
If Strasburg or NCTM (or whoever) were doing "visiting locos" the way the British do, this fall (COVID aside) it would be SR 4501 visiting. Or (if this were really America, British-style) B&M 3713, PRR 1361, WM 734 (running for three weeks after its overhaul at Strasburg!), Everett 11, etc.--and 475 or 89 would be on the Everett/Steamtown/WMSR/whatever.

Bring 611 every year, and your numbers will decline each year, as "been there, done that" fatigue sets in. Even the 1990s NS mainline steam program was not selling out trains in its final years--until they announced the end.

Now, Britain is a smaller country, about the size of New England, Pa., NY, and NJ combined....... so it's easier to do these swaps than, say, sending ATSF 2926 to Williams, Tucson, or Texas, or 4449 to Michigan, or 261 to Florida..............


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 5:21 pm 

Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:15 pm
Posts: 1799
“Bring 611 every year, and your numbers will decline each year, as "been there, done that" fatigue sets in. Even the 1990s NS mainline steam program was not selling out trains in its final years--until they announced the end.”

Has that been the case with the 765 at Cuyahoga Valley?


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 5:27 pm 

Joined: Tue Jan 25, 2005 4:03 pm
Posts: 948
Crescent-Zephyr wrote:
“Bring 611 every year, and your numbers will decline each year, as "been there, done that" fatigue sets in. Even the 1990s NS mainline steam program was not selling out trains in its final years--until they announced the end.”

Has that been the case with the 765 at Cuyahoga Valley?


Nope. (But the offerings are very different - a museum/interpretive visit and short train ride in North Carolina versus a 2-3 hour trip in Ohio.)

For context, Cuyahoga's diesel-powered operations do very well on their own, and Steam in the Valley traditionally marks a three-month marathon of sold-out operations, starting in September with the 765, followed by fall otherwise diesel-powered color trips in October, November, and then Polar Express and as such, I wouldn't be surprised to see us change up the time frame for the 765's visit in the future. Steam in the Valley brings the greatest influx of out-of-region visitors that are coming just for the steam locomotive.

Nevertheless, there was still a good and consistent crowd and sold-out events with 611 in Spencer last weekend. I'd even guess a few folks from Indiana made it down.

co614 wrote:
Folks, it ain't complicated. On nearly all tourist railroads ( exceptions being GC &Strasburg) the vast majority of their annual income is generated by themed trains and the vast majority ( 98% ? ) of those riders are there primarily to participate in celebrating that themed event with the train being the medium. They could care less what's pulling it.



In every presentation I give about what Fort Wayne does, I quote Walt Disney -- "with a diesel, it's a train. With a steam engine, it's a happening." Mileage will vary on whether you can make a business case for steam operations (as host, operator, lessor, etc), but to argue that the public does not care about what's pulling the train is handicapping yourself and defying one of the whole integral reasons why any of us are running steam in the first place. It's okay to say it doesn't work in the budget or the program or the aesthetic, but don't ever say "it's because no one cares." Ugh.

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Fort Wayne Railroad Historical Society, Inc
http://www.fortwaynerailroad.org
https://www.indianarailexperience.org/


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 7:54 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 5:19 pm
Posts: 2701
Location: Sackets Harbor, NY
Kelly, with all due respect ( and I admire all you and the 765 team have done for steam ) you're mixing apples with apricots.

Of course there is a fraternity of folks who love steam and are willing to support it in many ways. The fact that the 611 sold out it's 88 " in cab" slots ( at VERY handsome prices) for the 4 days they were offered while it's visiting Strasburg this summer is proof positive of that. That and other specialty events ( i.e. mainline excursions, steam photo charters, etc. ) wherein the steam locomotive is the star of the show exhibit the passion that many have for steam.

Then there's the FAR bigger number of passengers carried each year by the tourist short lines, mostly on themed trains of one kind or another, and the vast majority of that mileage is behind diesels. The market is never wrong. If, over time it was clearly shown that steam was needed on the tourist short lines to generate enough revenues to be solidly in the black then steam would be universal and the opposite is true.

As I've often posted,....at New Hope we've learned by doing over 3 plus seasons of experimenting that there's a sufficient number of customers willing to pay a 25% premium to ride behind steam for the North Pole trains and on a very few other select holidays. For most of the year on all the other trains diesel does fine and no one brings it up on the trains.

Facts are facts even when we don't like them.. Ross Rowland


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 8:44 pm 

Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:15 pm
Posts: 1799
co614 wrote:
Kelly, with all due respect ( and I admire all you and the 765 team have done for steam ) you're mixing apples with apricots.


No he’s not. He actually knows about marketing.


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 8:57 pm 

Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:54 pm
Posts: 231
With all due respect, Mr. Rowland, the tickets at NH are already egregiously expensive. When you mark them up that high, you're really catering only to two groups of people: first timers, seeing if it's worth the $200 or so per family, and returning families with deep pockets. This is why themed trains do better at New Hope; people are able to justify the cost by saying "Oh, it's tradition!" or "Oh, the Easter Bunny is on the train! Little Josh will love that!" Then, when you guys run the cheaper trains in the summer, the only trains with any pull are the wine trains because, you guessed it, deep pockets.

I'm not saying what you are doing is wrong (working there was really fun, and clearly if SSS trains were selling pretty well you guys aren't doing wrong), but you are filling a niche. A niche that can only exist somewhere like the Delaware Valley/New York Metro where you have several zip codes of people who, combined, make more money than the GDPs of some small countries.

To say that no one anywhere cares is bogus. People buy tickets at Strasburg because they're relatively inexpensive and because of the steam locomotive up front. People buy tickets at the TVRM because of the steam locomotive up front (or, if they're really, really huge train nerds, for the rolling stock. Those diesel trips aren't selling like hotcakes, but they fill a niche). And people will buy tickets at WMSR because, you guessed it, there's a big steam locomotive up front.

When the New Hope ran 40 on SEPTA, and sold tickets for $30, they sold out. Quickly. Because of the steam locomotive. If 2198 had been pulling those trips I doubt anyone would've batted an eye. And people definitely would have cared.

And they did. When 40 wasn't able to return the next year and run from Lansdale to Souderton as planned, tickets didn't sell nearly as well.


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 9:25 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 5:19 pm
Posts: 2701
Location: Sackets Harbor, NY
Yes, he is. Kelly markets the 765 which is a mainline product where she is the star of the show and main attraction.

The overwhelming majority of revenue passenger miles generated by the short line tourist rail industry are diesel powered even including the strong numbers posted by all steam Strasburg. That's just a fact.

Stop confusing the 2 products Zephyr, you're smarter than that??

Ross Rowland


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 9:29 pm 

Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:32 am
Posts: 292
Mcgrath618 is right. My wife, daughter and I are regular patrons of steam tourist lines, and when 40 ran regularly on the New Hope-Lahaska runs, we would ride a couple times a year. Now, forget it. Its not worth anything close to the $200 + we would have to pay, even for a longer ride. We ride the Black River & Western instead when 60 runs for a fraction of the cost, free parking, and a nice little museum at the other end of the line. At Christmas we ride in Strasburg, again for a fraction of the cost, behind steam, and can ride the Cagney for free. These places have other attractions and reasonable prices instead of an overpriced ride and don't nickel and dime their customers at every turn.

John Rembis


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 9:41 pm 

Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2004 10:51 pm
Posts: 219
Location: Eastern Pennsylvania
rem1028 wrote:
It's true. My wife, daughter and I are regular patrons of steam tourist lines, and when 40 ran regularly on the New Hope-Lahaska runs, we would ride a couple times a year. Now, forget it. Its not worth anything close to the $200 + we would have to pay. We ride the Black River & Western instead when 60 runs for a fraction of the cost, free parking, and a nice little museum at the other end of the line. At Christmas we ride in Strasburg, again for a fraction of the cost, behind steam, and can ride the Cagney for free. These places have other attractions and reasonable prices instead of an overpriced ride and don't nickel and dime their customers at every turn.

John Rembis


The New Hope & Ivyland Railroad is sort of an interesting situation, as the town itself seems to be the main draw, not the railroad which happens to be situated there. So, I'm not sure what kind of conclusions I'd draw between the NH&I and other tourist railroads, which are themselves the main attraction.

But, on the other hand, the Colebrookdale Railroad in Boyertown, PA is the attraction, and they are charging what I'd consider a lot for their trains (but at least parking is free for now) and definitely making it work. I'm curious what it will cost to ride behind steam when it arrives at Colebrookdale.

Both sides of the argument have merit, and I don't think you can generalize across the board, as all operations have different dynamics.

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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2021 11:27 pm 

Joined: Tue Jan 25, 2005 4:03 pm
Posts: 948
co614 wrote:
Yes, he is. Kelly markets the 765 which is a mainline product where she is the star of the show and main attraction.

The overwhelming majority of revenue passenger miles generated by the short line tourist rail industry are diesel powered even including the strong numbers posted by all steam Strasburg. That's just a fact.


FWIW, I'm involved in both paid and volunteer capacities for numerous steam/heritage rail operations, so I'm not speaking from a purely mainline steam locomotive perspective. This perspective (in serving both for-profits and nonprofits) believes that it's our collective job to wins the big three all at once, in this order: hearts, minds, wallets.

I don't think you can claim that the market/audience has a preference over motive power simply because the vast majority of operations are powered by diesel or because the industry is dominated by diesel locomotive motive power. The market, by itself, isn't dictating that. (The dismals aren't planning these ops are they?!)

If only Coca-Cola was served in 45 states, but Pepsi was served in the remaining five, the data alone would imply that customer sentiments prefer Coke, but that's only because Coca-Cola has the greatest reach – not that people prefer it! What looks like market dominance is actually just saturation.*

In earlier posts, it's been opined that the audience doesn't care/doesn't know the difference in the first place. How can the market have a demand for something in which it cannot ascertain the difference?

Quote:
If, over time it was clearly shown that steam was needed on the tourist short lines to generate enough revenues to be solidly in the black then steam would be universal and the opposite is true.


There's plenty of overlapping commentary on event-driven operations, steam vs. diesel economics, customer experiences, etc...but my point is that "the customer doesn't care" is a deeply flawed premise from which to operate. Steam vs. diesel economics will rarely support steam, but it comes down to making a choice about your operation/program/mission/values and making a choice that you can either influence and mold audience/market behavior or not.

New Hope is a for-profit entity that clearly places a premium on steam (which, by itself, illustrates that a segment of the market will pay extra for it), whereas Strasburg believes it is a fundamental part of the visitor experience, atmosphere, and overall offerings. I would never tell a client investing millions in a steam restoration/operation that no one will care what's pulling their trains.

Maybe I've been radicalized, but my other issue with the premise is that "the customer doesn't care" is neither instructional nor informative. I can't imagine a [non-profit] organization saying "we exist to preserve the rich railroad heritage of Bedford Falls, except for the streetcar, no one cares about those and also they're very expensive lol."

As I've said – our whole reason for existing in this industry is to make them care. We'll all wish they cared when we need a retube, a new tender, a new sidesheet, a new passenger car, a new home...

Kelly Lynch
Not always (but usually) speaking on behalf of the
Fort Wayne Railroad Historical Society, Inc (and friends)
*this post is not endorsed but otherwise probably powered by Coca-Cola


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 Post subject: Re: The End For WMSR 734?
PostPosted: Tue May 04, 2021 3:49 am 

Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2009 5:31 pm
Posts: 329
....... and poor old #734 got left behind 4 pages ago...........


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