I received this from the Travel Industry of America, I thought it was interesting.

TIA compared current gas prices to those of a year ago and found that on the typical U.S. driving vacation of 800 miles, higher prices would add $30 to overall trip costs. TIA also estimates that for larger vehicles and those towing a trailer or those that are heavily loaded, the per-trip cost will go up $40 to $50. That equates to the price of a dinner for two and is not likely to significantly alter travel plans. High gasoline prices historically cause Americans to make slight modifications to their travel plans but don’t cause them to cancel. Gasoline shortages, however, have led travelers to cancel trips in the past.

Mark - last year was not a banner year by any measure, and comparing costs with this year based on only that criteria isn't particularly hopeful. Further, the psychological effect of high gas prices probably will be greater than the reality.

It could be a banner year for attractions handy to a destination or a major SMSA, but is unlikely to favor those who are remote and alone.

Creative and intensive marketing efforts could make a real difference. This is the time to focus on doing what is necessary to make people really want to choose our attractions rather than other venues, through whatever means.

Anybody going outside the box in a new and interesting way?

dave

As somebody mentioned the last time this came up, the problem isn't the cost the increased price ads to one trip; it’s the drain the increased price puts on the family budget because of the increased cost of the daily commute. I drive appx. 20,000 miles per year, at an average of about fifteen MPG; that's a little over 1300 gallons for me alone, half that again for my wife. The one dollar per gallon increase means I've spent $1300 of the vacation budget just getting to work, and she's spent another $650. Let's see, that two grand would just about have paid for a trip to Ely. Guess I won't be coming this year.

To add to Dennis's comments it is also the additional cost of everything else you have to buy. Since everything requires some type of transportation the cost of the fuel surcharges must be absorbed by the consumer. Even driving our 40 mpg Saturn instead of the 20 mpg truck the cost of fuel must be deducted from disposable income.

John Bohon

Exactly right. This, and the so-called "psychological threshold" of US$3/gallon (or C$1 per 35.2 ounce litre), will combine to eliminate many railfan road trips in 2006. And starting in 2007, those of us who make trips across the Canadian/US border will have to show up at Customs with valid passports... another expense, albeit small, but delays and hassles, too.

I had planned to spend more than week stateside this July, but I'll definitely be cutting back or just staying in Toronto *yawn*.

To do this type of analysis properly, you have to set a baseline and compare in inflation adjusted dollars, the cost of driving x number of miles now with what it would have been for your baseline.

If you set your baseline back to when Amtrak was started, and correct for inflation and allow for the fact that today's vehicles are much more efficient than they were then, you find cheaper to drive those x number of miles now than it was then.

If you set your baseline at what it was last year, it's obviously much more expensive.

Bob H

IMHO - a larger question affecting our operations is the fact that the middle class American is getting smaller with less vacation time and working more hours each year. These factors are more important that gas prices.

Good point, Jim - gas prices might be a red-flag issue today, whether or not perceptions match reality notwithstanding, but it is a mistake to consider it as the only variable in a large set of factors.

I think the relative efficiency of modern cars is a red herring, given the high proportion of guzzling Stupid Ugly Vehicles relative to economical smaller cars. My old 1962 MG, carbureted and distributor ignition equipped, might have been inefficient, but got more miles to a gallon than a 2006 Navigator.

dave

A contrarian viewpoint:

I believe all the whining and caterwauling about the price of gasoline is just a bunch of bushwa. In recent times, the price of bottled water exceeded the cost of a gallon of gas. While many of us have lived their entire lives without the 'need' for bottled water, how many can say the same for gasoline ?

The next point is this: did anyone ever consider the side-effects of the conversion of Chinas' coal-based economy to a system based upon importation of liquid fossil fuels ? What about India ?

Of course, this has been discussed previously in certain quarters-with the purveyors of the essential truth being dismissed as cranks and crepe-hangers.

Having met many folks from other lands, one point that they all seem to agree on is that Americans have a singular and narrow worldview not otherwise duplicated elsewhere. One facet that puzzles just about all these 'foreigners' is the closely held belief that we as Americans have a right to copious and inexpensive supplies of any product of commodity that we desire.

How does this relate to vacation and volunteerism:

As the American way appears to be 'buy now pay later', I can't imagine the doubling in price of a commodity that was inexpensive to begin with can really effect anybody except those at the bottom of the socio-economic scale. To invoke the past-I am old enough to remember when many vacations were made on the basis of a pocket full of travelers checks. There was no Mastercard and Visa-and those who lived in the rarified heights were afforded the privelge of an AMEX or Diners Club card. Thus, anyone who blames their change in vacation plans on the price of fossil fuels is just being disingenous.

The past-pay as you go. The present-instant gratification.

On the subject of volunteerism, many of the pundits, wonks and think tank
folks seem to agree that the American existence has passed the apogee of its orbit and is slowly spiraling toward the ground. My point: only a wealthy society can afford to indulge themselves so deeply in such semi-cultural activities as railway preservation.

The other trend to that seems to be in evidence is the fact that parents book their childrens' schedules in such a way that there is little time (after all the other requisite adult pursuits) for such nicities as volunteering.

Nonetheless, as I was discussing with someone last night-there is some upside postential. For those who don't know, the rail freight business is BOOMING. As industrial feedstock production and electric power generation swings toward coal as the energy source, this trend will now continue.

Additionally, there are already signs that there will be a boom in various segements of rail passenger service-both commuter and short-distance intercity.

For those of us who are interested in the present and future of the railroad trade in addition to the past, this is indeed good news.

Dave

You may be right in all you say Dave. Frankly I do not know. What I do know is that when I look at my bank accounts I have less disposable income today than I did 5 or 10 years ago and far less than I did 15 or 20 years ago. I still have the same wife, cars, and house so not much has changed. It seems every time I buy anything the price has gone up. Working for a shortline railroad is not a way to quick wealth and even with generous pay increases my wages have not increased enough to keep up with the increased costs. I can not think of anyone I know who has not said the same thing.

Fifteen or twenty years ago I was making far less money but had enough to go on a few mainline fantrips, visit tourist roads almost at will, and volunteering most weekends at places like Williams Grove or TVRM. I can no longer afford to do that.

My boss has a sign taped to his door that says something like " In a world that is all smoke and mirrors perception is reality". I think a lot of working class people are in the same boat I am. It seems everyone is making record profits except me. When I came to the A&R 15 years ago we had 13 people in the track department. Today we are down to 3. We have all but 5 miles of the original track we must still maintain. After spending 12 years of building up the property I am now watching it slowly fall down around my ears. On top of all of this two of the three of us are getting a little long in the tooth.

The high price of insurance has probably pushed my retirement back at least 5 years. I can not live on my pension and give more than half of it to the insurance company. I will have to wait for retirement to have any chance of doing most of the things I want to, including frequent volunteering on steam. I do work every day that people less than half my present age have been unable to stand since the beginning of my railroad career. From my point of view pushing the retirement age back may be fine for people with easy jobs like editors and politicians but people who do physical work every day are worn out by the time they are 60. I am more than 10 years from 60 and I am already well worn.

I am not complaining about the A&R. To be honest they are good to work for with reasonable pay and good benefits. I understand why things have to be the way they are. Someday it will hopefully improve and in the mean time we are solidly in the black. That is more than I can say for most of my previous employers. It just seems the longer hours I work the less I have to show for it and the less I can do things I want to. When the price of gas is $2.00 per gallon higher than it was just a few years ago it makes a big hole in my budget and has a real impact on my lifestyle. We only drive when absolutely necessary these days. I really do not think I am the only person in this position and I think it will have an impact on visitation and volunteerism at most attractions.

John Bohon


Edited for spelling mistakes. Sorry about any I missed.


n

This train of thought inspires a question:

Have any of the trade groups such as TRAIN or ARM or individual preservation groups ever worked up a demographic profile of their membership ?

Dave

However the real price of gasoline adjusted for inflation isn't much above the historic high in the 80s

http://zfacts.com/p/35.html

people are complaining about the price of fuel because the other sheep are complaining, and people like to complain about something, anything.

People won't do something because of cost if they don't really want to, and are looking for an excuse. If someone really wants to do something then cost isn't going to be a big factor, they will simply spend less on something else.